Indiana Medicaid changes will leave more than 100,000 without coverage, according to advocates

More than 100,000 people could lose Medicaid coverage in Indiana under a measure that passed the most recent legislative session. 

That’s according to a new analysis done by the advocacy group Hoosier Action.

Republicans championed SB 1 as a legislative priority that would bring the state in line with work requirements and eligibility checks on welfare programs instituted at the federal level.

Democrats argued the bill went further than federal changes that were already expected to bump thousands of people off the Medicaid rolls. 

Now, Tracey Hutchings-Geotz with Hoosier Action said a new analysis shows over 100,000 additional people could be cut from Indiana’s Medicaid program because of the changes made by state Republicans. 

Hutchings-Geotz said the change won’t save the state money. 

“We're really setting ourselves up for more expensive costs in the future by making our population poorer and sicker,” she said.

When reached for comment, a spokesperson with the Indiana Family and Social Services Administration said they didn’t know how anyone could have an estimate. 

“We have no estimate, and we don’t see how anyone has an estimate,” Marcus Barlow, deputy chief of staff for the FSSA, said in a statement. 

Hutchings-Geotz said it’s unusual for the state to have no analysis of impact.

“It's completely absurd that they are saying they can't do this, or they won't do this, or there’s no point in doing this,” she said. 

Between the state and federal changes, Hoosier Action estimates nearly 400,000 people will lose Medicaid coverage by 2034. The majority of those cuts would come from the state’s Medicaid expansion population. 

For her own estimate, Hutchings-Geotz said she used state data on how many people were disenrolled from Indiana’s Medicaid programs because of POWER accounts - an Indiana Medicaid program requiring monthly contributions that led some 60,000 Hoosiers to be disenrolled, according to some estimates.

“I don’t understand how FSSA or lawmakers can make decisions which impact coverage as this bill would, without making estimates, because there are significant budget implications to these decisions,” she said. “So I'm very disappointed by their refusal to even attempt such a thing.”

Lawmakers have said the cuts are necessary to help reduce the ballooning Medicaid budget, but it’s not clear how much these cuts will ultimately save the state. The new law also aims to reduce Indiana’s Medicaid error rate to avoid additional federal penalties. 

Republicans behind the bill have estimated that errors in Medicaid and SNAP payments could cost the state billions if steps aren’t taken to address them. 

The Medicaid expansion population has roughly 90% of their benefits covered by the federal government, meaning the state isn’t having to pay for the vast majority of their coverage. 

Still, FSSA Secretary Mitch Roob announced in December that the state has already seen over $400 million in savings, largely through reductions to the state’s Medicaid population. 

But Hutchings-Goetz is skeptical that cutting the Medicaid population won’t harm the state and residents in the long run.

“Part of the reason why it is beneficial to provide health care coverage for an adult age lower income population is that if they have access to care sooner and earlier… they are less likely to need very expensive long-term care,” she said. “So, I have serious skepticism about anticipated cost savings.”

Contact Government Reporter Benjamin Thorp at bthorp@wfyi.org